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Does voter turnout by how crowded a neighborhood is show a pattern in Milwaukee?

Milwaukee neighborhoods that are more crowded turned out less: a weak pattern across 90 neighborhoods, correlation -0.32.

The quarter of neighborhoods that are less crowded average 58.7%, and the quarter that are more crowded average 51.2%. Fernwood is furthest from the pattern, at 84.2% with 4,066 on the other measure.

Highest
Fernwood
84.2%
Middle City neighborhood
58.0%
Of 90 ranked
Metric
Votes for president per resident 18 and over, 2024
Year
November 2024; Census ACS 2020 to 2024
Source
Wisconsin LTSB 2024 Election Data with 2025 Wards (Milwaukee County)

90 City neighborhoods on both measures

Each dot is a neighborhood. Further right means a higher number for residents per square kilometer. Higher up means a higher number for votes for president per resident 18 and over, 2024. Press a dot to open that neighborhood.

84.2%

Amani: 48.1%, 2,521Arlington Gardens: 65.0%, 2,057Arlington Heights: 53.9%, 3,789Avenues West: 41.7%, 6,074Bay View: 78.7%, 2,463Bluemound Heights: 66.8%, 2,648Borchert Field: 45.7%, 2,882Burnham Park: 37.9%, 5,382Capitol Heights: 67.2%, 2,877Clarke Square: 27.7%, 7,685Cold Spring Park: 58.0%, 5,336Columbus Park: 63.9%, 3,672Concordia: 36.2%, 4,982Cooper Park: 79.8%, 2,591Dineen Park: 61.8%, 1,339Downer Woods: 64.9%, 4,792Fairfield: 57.5%, 1,496Fairview: 66.0%, 2,771Fernwood: 84.2%, 4,066Forest Home Hills: 30.3%, 2,990Franklin Heights: 49.1%, 3,059Garden Homes: 49.4%, 2,606Golden Valley: 74.3%, 2,532Graceland: 60.7%, 1,095Grasslyn Manor: 72.3%, 3,449Hampton Heights: 57.1%, 3,479Harambee: 52.5%, 3,679Harbor View: 61.2%, 1,851Hillside: 57.9%, 2,502Historic Mitchell Street: 28.5%, 6,347Historic Third Ward: 78.3%, 2,356Honey Creek Manor: 62.3%, 2,623Jackson Park: 61.8%, 2,335Juneau Town: 56.0%, 4,669Kilbourn Town: 59.8%, 3,440Kops Park: 71.8%, 2,450Layton Park: 44.6%, 3,985Lincoln Creek: 63.6%, 3,179Lincoln Park: 65.2%, 2,072Lincoln Village: 27.6%, 6,852Lindsay Park: 64.2%, 3,331Long View: 67.2%, 2,441Lower East Side: 62.6%, 7,505McGovern Park: 57.1%, 2,619Menomonee River Hills East: 58.7%, 739Menomonee River Hills: 58.8%, 2,091Menomonee River Valley: 38.0%, 600Merrill Park: 46.5%, 3,233Metcalfe Park: 40.9%, 2,672Midtown: 52.6%, 2,942Miller Valley: 53.8%, 1,518Mitchell West: 54.7%, 1,066Morgan Heights: 67.9%, 2,434Morgandale: 56.2%, 3,202Murray Hill: 60.3%, 5,524Muskego Way: 28.6%, 8,093Nash Park: 69.8%, 2,242North Division: 50.6%, 2,145North Granville: 49.9%, 370Northpoint: 69.7%, 5,276Old North Milwaukee: 54.8%, 2,557Polonia: 37.1%, 4,206River Bend: 69.1%, 2,536Riverwest: 64.9%, 3,293Roosevelt Grove: 62.2%, 2,907Rufus King: 62.9%, 2,508Saint Joseph: 60.3%, 4,481Sherman Park: 56.2%, 3,427Silver City: 35.1%, 6,730Silver Spring: 54.7%, 2,838Silver Swan: 50.7%, 3,287Southpoint: 43.4%, 3,441St. Amelian's: 63.7%, 2,546Story Hill: 77.1%, 945Sunset Heights: 72.4%, 3,580Thurston Woods: 57.5%, 2,301Timmerman West: 54.9%, 1,061Tippecanoe: 77.3%, 2,471Town of Lake: 72.2%, 2,005Upper East Side: 63.8%, 4,246Uptown: 58.2%, 4,210Valhalla: 50.8%, 2,263Wahl Park: 58.0%, 2,808Walker's Point: 43.9%, 3,158Walnut Hill: 42.1%, 3,650Washington Heights: 78.1%, 4,296Washington Park: 47.6%, 2,410Williamsburg: 54.1%, 1,540Wilson Park: 56.9%, 1,624Yankee Hill: 65.3%, 9,973FernwoodForest Home HillsMenomonee River ValleyWashington HeightsYankee Hill

27.6%

3709,973

Correlation: -0.32 across 90 neighborhoods. Across the bottom: Residents per square kilometer. Up the side: Votes for president per resident 18 and over, 2024.

City of Milwaukee neighborhoods

Votes for president per resident 18 and over, 2024, November 2024; Census ACS 2020 to 2024. To be counted, a neighborhood has to meet the floor on both measures. Neighborhoods under that are in the table with their numbers and the reason, and aren't in the correlation.

Fernwood184.2%4,066
Cooper Park279.8%2,591
Bay View378.7%2,463
Historic Third Ward478.3%2,356
Washington Heights578.1%4,296
Tippecanoe677.3%2,471
Story Hill777.1%945
Golden Valley874.3%2,532
Sunset Heights972.4%3,580
Grasslyn Manor1072.3%3,449
Town of Lake1172.2%2,005
Kops Park1271.8%2,450
Nash Park1369.8%2,242
Northpoint1469.7%5,276
River Bend1569.1%2,536
Morgan Heights1667.9%2,434
Long View1767.2%2,441
Capitol Heights1867.2%2,877
Bluemound Heights1966.8%2,648
Fairview2066.0%2,771
Yankee Hill2165.3%9,973
Lincoln Park2265.2%2,072
Arlington Gardens2365.0%2,057
Riverwest2464.9%3,293
Downer Woods2564.9%4,792
Lindsay Park2664.2%3,331
Columbus Park2763.9%3,672
Upper East Side2863.8%4,246
St. Amelian's2963.7%2,546
Lincoln Creek3063.6%3,179
Rufus King3162.9%2,508
Lower East Side3262.6%7,505
Honey Creek Manor3362.3%2,623
Roosevelt Grove3462.2%2,907
Jackson Park3561.8%2,335
Dineen Park3661.8%1,339
Harbor View3761.2%1,851
Graceland3860.7%1,095
Saint Joseph3960.3%4,481
Murray Hill4060.3%5,524
Kilbourn Town4159.8%3,440
Menomonee River Hills4258.8%2,091
Menomonee River Hills East4358.7%739
Uptown4458.2%4,210
Cold Spring Park4558.0%5,336
Wahl Park4658.0%2,808
Hillside4757.9%2,502
Fairfield4857.5%1,496
Thurston Woods4957.5%2,301
McGovern Park5057.1%2,619
Hampton Heights5157.1%3,479
Wilson Park5256.9%1,624
Sherman Park5356.2%3,427
Morgandale5456.2%3,202
Juneau Town5556.0%4,669
Timmerman West5654.9%1,061
Old North Milwaukee5754.8%2,557
Mitchell West5854.7%1,066
Silver Spring5954.7%2,838
Williamsburg6054.1%1,540
Arlington Heights6153.9%3,789
Miller Valley6253.8%1,518
Midtown6352.6%2,942
Harambee6452.5%3,679
Valhalla6550.8%2,263
Silver Swan6650.7%3,287
North Division6750.6%2,145
North Granville6849.9%370
Garden Homes6949.4%2,606
Franklin Heights7049.1%3,059
Amani7148.1%2,521
Washington Park7247.6%2,410
Merrill Park7346.5%3,233
Borchert Field7445.7%2,882
Layton Park7544.6%3,985
Walker's Point7643.9%3,158
Southpoint7743.4%3,441
Walnut Hill7842.1%3,650
Avenues West7941.7%6,074
Metcalfe Park8040.9%2,672
Menomonee River Valley8138.0%600
Burnham Park8237.9%5,382
Polonia8337.1%4,206
Concordia8436.2%4,982
Silver City8535.1%6,730
Forest Home Hills8630.3%2,990
Muskego Way8728.6%8,093
Historic Mitchell Street8828.5%6,347
Clarke Square8927.7%7,685
Lincoln Village9027.6%6,852
Alcott ParkOne ward, not ranked72.2%2,285
AlvernoOne ward, not ranked61.4%2,070
Bradley EstatesOne ward, not ranked76.1%1,378
Brewer's HillOne ward, not ranked69.2%3,774
Brown Deer ParkOne ward, not ranked62.3%913
Cambridge HeightsOne ward, not ranked50.5%3,477
Cannon ParkOne ward, not ranked48.3%1,785
Castle ManorOne ward, not ranked68.6%2,749
Clayton CrestOne ward, not ranked70.9%2,144
Clock Tower AcresOne ward, not ranked41.6%1,821
College HeightsOne ward, not ranked65.8%1,131
Copernicus ParkOne ward, not ranked62.9%1,724
Enderis ParkOne ward, not ranked81.1%3,191
Estabrook ParkOne ward, not ranked59.1%640
Euclid ParkOne ward, not ranked67.0%2,950
Goldman ParkOne ward, not ranked66.2%1,677
Gra-RamOne ward, not ranked63.1%2,375
GrantosaOne ward, not ranked61.5%2,383
Granville StationOne ward, not ranked76.7%766
HavenwoodsOne ward, not ranked61.4%605
Hawley FarmsOne ward, not ranked61.5%2,027
Highwood EstatesOne ward, not ranked63.9%3,636
Johnson's WoodsOne ward, not ranked57.8%2,846
King ParkOne ward, not ranked39.9%3,243
Lake ParkOne ward, not ranked69.0%5
Lenox HeightsOne ward, not ranked60.7%4,303
Lyons ParkOne ward, not ranked65.5%3,088
Maitland ParkOne ward, not ranked65.2%479
Maple TreeOne ward, not ranked60.5%2,622
Mill ValleyOne ward, not ranked76.5%641
Mount MaryOne ward, not ranked94.6%1,721
Mount OlivetToo few adults, not ranked15.8%2,231
National ParkOne ward, not ranked37.5%4,980
NorthridgeOne ward, not ranked52.0%762
Northridge LakesOne ward, not ranked51.2%2,069
Park PlaceOne ward, not ranked65.8%468
Pheasant RunOne ward, not ranked59.1%2,173
Riverside ParkOne ward, not ranked77.9%3,563
Rolling GreenOne ward, not ranked58.2%4,069
Root CreekOne ward, not ranked59.3%2,783
Saveland ParkOne ward, not ranked75.2%1,588
SouthgateOne ward, not ranked56.4%2,057
TriangleOne ward, not ranked57.7%2,017
Triangle NorthOne ward, not ranked56.3%1,861
Vogel ParkOne ward, not ranked46.1%3,145
WedgewoodOne ward, not ranked70.3%2,216
White ManorOne ward, not ranked66.0%2,500
Wick FieldOne ward, not ranked76.9%1,188
WoodlandsOne ward, not ranked48.3%2,859

Suburbs

River Hills194.1%122
Whitefish Bay293.6%3,045
Bayside391.4%823
Fox Point490.5%1,014
Wauwatosa583.6%1,417
Shorewood683.5%3,608
Greendale781.6%1,013
Glendale881.2%915
Franklin978.8%401
Hales Corners1078.3%930
Oak Creek1176.2%524
Brown Deer1274.1%1,104
St. Francis1373.7%1,616
Greenfield1469.5%1,247
South Milwaukee1568.3%1,834
Cudahy1665.3%1,565
West Allis1763.3%2,024
West Milwaukee1851.9%1,394

How we measured this

We plot each City neighborhood on both measures and compute the Pearson correlation across the 90 that meet the floors. Sources: Wisconsin LTSB 2024 Election Data with 2025 Wards (Milwaukee County); U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year estimates, tables B01003 and B11001 by block group.

What would change the answer

This shows a pattern across neighborhoods. It doesn't show that one thing causes the other, and it says nothing about any one person. A correlation near 0 means no straight-line pattern, and one or two unusual neighborhoods can move it.

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