{"slug":"turnout-by-density","topic":"How one thing tracks another","query":"turnout_by_density","title":"Milwaukee voter turnout by how crowded a neighborhood is","question":"Does voter turnout by how crowded a neighborhood is show a pattern in Milwaukee?","answer":"Milwaukee neighborhoods that are more crowded turned out less: a weak pattern across 90 neighborhoods, correlation -0.32.","finding":"The quarter of neighborhoods that are less crowded average 58.7%, and the quarter that are more crowded average 51.2%. Fernwood is furthest from the pattern, at 84.2% with 4,066 on the other measure.","metric":"Votes for president per resident 18 and over, 2024","period":"November 2024; Census ACS 2020 to 2024","source":{"title":"Wisconsin LTSB 2024 Election Data with 2025 Wards (Milwaukee County)","url":"https://services1.arcgis.com/FDsAtKBk8Hy4cAH0/arcgis/rest/services/2024_Election_Data_with_2025_Wards/FeatureServer/0","license":"Open and publicly available data (Legislative Technology Services Bureau); used at the user's own risk","redistributable":true},"method":"We plot each City neighborhood on both measures and compute the Pearson correlation across the 90 that meet the floors. Sources: Wisconsin LTSB 2024 Election Data with 2025 Wards (Milwaukee County); U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year estimates, tables B01003 and B11001 by block group.","caveat":"This shows a pattern across neighborhoods. It doesn't show that one thing causes the other, and it says nothing about any one person. A correlation near 0 means no straight-line pattern, and one or two unusual neighborhoods can move it.","columns":[{"key":"x","label":"Residents per square kilometer"}],"floor":"To be counted, a neighborhood has to meet the floor on both measures. Neighborhoods under that are in the table with their numbers and the reason, and aren't in the correlation.","city":[{"rank":1,"slug":"fernwood","name":"Fernwood","value":0.8418079096045198,"shown":"84.2%","extra":{"x":"4,066"}},{"rank":2,"slug":"cooper-park","name":"Cooper Park","value":0.7983055479639246,"shown":"79.8%","extra":{"x":"2,591"}},{"rank":3,"slug":"bay-view","name":"Bay View","value":0.786987001606543,"shown":"78.7%","extra":{"x":"2,463"}},{"rank":4,"slug":"historic-third-ward","name":"Historic Third Ward","value":0.7825936199722607,"shown":"78.3%","extra":{"x":"2,356"}},{"rank":5,"slug":"washington-heights","name":"Washington Heights","value":0.7806995149348992,"shown":"78.1%","extra":{"x":"4,296"}},{"rank":6,"slug":"tippecanoe","name":"Tippecanoe","value":0.7725340136054422,"shown":"77.3%","extra":{"x":"2,471"}},{"rank":7,"slug":"story-hill","name":"Story Hill","value":0.7713815789473685,"shown":"77.1%","extra":{"x":"945"}},{"rank":8,"slug":"golden-valley","name":"Golden Valley","value":0.7426739926739927,"shown":"74.3%","extra":{"x":"2,532"}},{"rank":9,"slug":"sunset-heights","name":"Sunset Heights","value":0.72447614801605,"shown":"72.4%","extra":{"x":"3,580"}},{"rank":10,"slug":"grasslyn-manor","name":"Grasslyn Manor","value":0.7233866519580805,"shown":"72.3%","extra":{"x":"3,449"}},{"rank":11,"slug":"town-of-lake","name":"Town of Lake","value":0.7218259629101283,"shown":"72.2%","extra":{"x":"2,005"}},{"rank":12,"slug":"kops-park","name":"Kops Park","value":0.718369507676019,"shown":"71.8%","extra":{"x":"2,450"}},{"rank":13,"slug":"nash-park","name":"Nash Park","value":0.698257543561411,"shown":"69.8%","extra":{"x":"2,242"}},{"rank":14,"slug":"northpoint","name":"Northpoint","value":0.6971025079133187,"shown":"69.7%","extra":{"x":"5,276"}},{"rank":15,"slug":"river-bend","name":"River 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King","value":0.6286360698125404,"shown":"62.9%","extra":{"x":"2,508"}},{"rank":32,"slug":"lower-east-side","name":"Lower East Side","value":0.6261994893916718,"shown":"62.6%","extra":{"x":"7,505"}},{"rank":33,"slug":"honey-creek-manor","name":"Honey Creek Manor","value":0.6227709190672154,"shown":"62.3%","extra":{"x":"2,623"}},{"rank":34,"slug":"roosevelt-grove","name":"Roosevelt Grove","value":0.6219692177946448,"shown":"62.2%","extra":{"x":"2,907"}},{"rank":35,"slug":"jackson-park","name":"Jackson Park","value":0.6177017478616587,"shown":"61.8%","extra":{"x":"2,335"}},{"rank":36,"slug":"dineen-park","name":"Dineen Park","value":0.6176401040435091,"shown":"61.8%","extra":{"x":"1,339"}},{"rank":37,"slug":"harbor-view","name":"Harbor View","value":0.6115035317860746,"shown":"61.2%","extra":{"x":"1,851"}},{"rank":38,"slug":"graceland","name":"Graceland","value":0.6068943706514864,"shown":"60.7%","extra":{"x":"1,095"}},{"rank":39,"slug":"saint-joseph","name":"Saint 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Park","value":0.5619573796369376,"shown":"56.2%","extra":{"x":"3,427"}},{"rank":54,"slug":"morgandale","name":"Morgandale","value":0.5616239729337844,"shown":"56.2%","extra":{"x":"3,202"}},{"rank":55,"slug":"juneau-town","name":"Juneau Town","value":0.5595092024539877,"shown":"56.0%","extra":{"x":"4,669"}},{"rank":56,"slug":"timmerman-west","name":"Timmerman West","value":0.5488225157955198,"shown":"54.9%","extra":{"x":"1,061"}},{"rank":57,"slug":"old-north-milwaukee","name":"Old North Milwaukee","value":0.548453305966867,"shown":"54.8%","extra":{"x":"2,557"}},{"rank":58,"slug":"mitchell-west","name":"Mitchell West","value":0.5470372632864997,"shown":"54.7%","extra":{"x":"1,066"}},{"rank":59,"slug":"silver-spring","name":"Silver Spring","value":0.5470319634703197,"shown":"54.7%","extra":{"x":"2,838"}},{"rank":60,"slug":"williamsburg","name":"Williamsburg","value":0.5407701019252548,"shown":"54.1%","extra":{"x":"1,540"}},{"rank":61,"slug":"arlington-heights","name":"Arlington Heights","value":0.5388437217705511,"shown":"53.9%","extra":{"x":"3,789"}},{"rank":62,"slug":"miller-valley","name":"Miller Valley","value":0.5378109452736318,"shown":"53.8%","extra":{"x":"1,518"}},{"rank":63,"slug":"midtown","name":"Midtown","value":0.5256320224719101,"shown":"52.6%","extra":{"x":"2,942"}},{"rank":64,"slug":"harambee","name":"Harambee","value":0.5252037930460822,"shown":"52.5%","extra":{"x":"3,679"}},{"rank":65,"slug":"valhalla","name":"Valhalla","value":0.5075493612078978,"shown":"50.8%","extra":{"x":"2,263"}},{"rank":66,"slug":"silver-swan","name":"Silver Swan","value":0.506629168340699,"shown":"50.7%","extra":{"x":"3,287"}},{"rank":67,"slug":"north-division","name":"North Division","value":0.5056387123231495,"shown":"50.6%","extra":{"x":"2,145"}},{"rank":68,"slug":"north-granville","name":"North Granville","value":0.49859943977591037,"shown":"49.9%","extra":{"x":"370"}},{"rank":69,"slug":"garden-homes","name":"Garden 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