{"slug":"turnout-by-change-since-2016","topic":"How one thing tracks another","query":"turnout_by_change","title":"Milwaukee 2024 turnout by its change since 2016","question":"Does 2024 turnout by its change since 2016 show a pattern in Milwaukee?","answer":"Milwaukee neighborhoods that gained more turnout since 2016 turned out more: a weak pattern across 78 neighborhoods, correlation 0.30.","finding":"The quarter of neighborhoods that gained less turnout since 2016 average 53.6%, and the quarter that gained more turnout since 2016 average 67.0%. Lincoln Village is furthest from the pattern, at 27.6% with -0.3 on the other measure.","metric":"Votes for president per resident 18 and over, 2024","period":"November 2024; 2016 and 2024","source":{"title":"Wisconsin LTSB 2024 Election Data with 2025 Wards (Milwaukee County)","url":"https://services1.arcgis.com/FDsAtKBk8Hy4cAH0/arcgis/rest/services/2024_Election_Data_with_2025_Wards/FeatureServer/0","license":"Open and publicly available data (Legislative Technology Services Bureau); used at the user's own risk","redistributable":true},"method":"We plot each City neighborhood on both measures and compute the Pearson correlation across the 78 that meet the floors. Sources: Wisconsin LTSB 2024 Election Data with 2025 Wards (Milwaukee County); Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau election data by ward.","caveat":"This shows a pattern across neighborhoods. It doesn't show that one thing causes the other, and it says nothing about any one person. A correlation near 0 means no straight-line pattern, and one or two unusual neighborhoods can move it.","columns":[{"key":"x","label":"Change in turnout, 2016 to 2024, in points"}],"floor":"To be counted, a neighborhood has to meet the floor on both measures. Neighborhoods under that are in the table with their numbers and the reason, and aren't in the correlation.","city":[{"rank":1,"slug":"fernwood","name":"Fernwood","value":0.8418079096045198,"shown":"84.2%","extra":{"x":"+5.0"}},{"rank":2,"slug":"cooper-park","name":"Cooper Park","value":0.7983055479639246,"shown":"79.8%","extra":{"x":"+3.3"}},{"rank":3,"slug":"bay-view","name":"Bay View","value":0.786987001606543,"shown":"78.7%","extra":{"x":"+3.9"}},{"rank":4,"slug":"washington-heights","name":"Washington Heights","value":0.7806995149348992,"shown":"78.1%","extra":{"x":"+4.3"}},{"rank":5,"slug":"tippecanoe","name":"Tippecanoe","value":0.7725340136054422,"shown":"77.3%","extra":{"x":"+6.7"}},{"rank":6,"slug":"story-hill","name":"Story Hill","value":0.7713815789473685,"shown":"77.1%","extra":{"x":"+4.5"}},{"rank":7,"slug":"golden-valley","name":"Golden Valley","value":0.7426739926739927,"shown":"74.3%","extra":{"x":"+2.8"}},{"rank":8,"slug":"sunset-heights","name":"Sunset 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