# Does midterm drop-off by renter share show a pattern in Milwaukee?

These two aren't related across 88 City of Milwaukee neighborhoods: the correlation is 0.18, too small to call a pattern.

The quarter of neighborhoods that have fewer renters average 16.0, and the quarter that have more renters average 17.0. Wahl Park is furthest from the pattern, at 28.2 with 68.0% on the other measure.

Metric: Midterm drop-off, president 2024 minus governor 2022, in points. Period: 2022 and 2024; Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Source: [Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau election data by ward](https://services1.arcgis.com/FDsAtKBk8Hy4cAH0/arcgis/rest/services/2024_Election_Data_with_2025_Wards/FeatureServer/0).

## City of Milwaukee neighborhoods

| Order | Neighborhood | Midterm drop-off, president 2024 minus governor 2022, in points | Share of occupied homes rented |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | [Kilbourn Town](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/kilbourn-town) | 28.6 | 90.8% |
| 2 | [Wahl Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/wahl-park) | 28.2 | 68.0% |
| 3 | [Cold Spring Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/cold-spring-park) | 24.2 | 86.0% |
| 4 | [Fairfield](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/fairfield) | 24.1 | 68.2% |
| 5 | [Sunset Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/sunset-heights) | 22.9 | 53.6% |
| 6 | [Silver Spring](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/silver-spring) | 22.9 | 68.2% |
| 7 | [Long View](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/long-view) | 22.7 | 49.3% |
| 8 | [Valhalla](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/valhalla) | 22.0 | 80.7% |
| 9 | [Silver Swan](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/silver-swan) | 21.3 | 72.8% |
| 10 | [Washington Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/washington-park) | 20.9 | 67.6% |
| 11 | [Avenues West](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/avenues-west) | 20.8 | 97.4% |
| 12 | [Lindsay Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lindsay-park) | 20.8 | 46.7% |
| 13 | [Arlington Gardens](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/arlington-gardens) | 20.1 | 37.3% |
| 14 | [McGovern Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/mcgovern-park) | 20.1 | 58.7% |
| 15 | [Thurston Woods](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/thurston-woods) | 19.8 | 54.4% |
| 16 | [Old North Milwaukee](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/old-north-milwaukee) | 19.8 | 68.5% |
| 17 | [Hampton Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/hampton-heights) | 19.5 | 44.9% |
| 18 | [Midtown](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/midtown) | 19.5 | 68.1% |
| 19 | [Capitol Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/capitol-heights) | 19.3 | 41.5% |
| 20 | [Saint Joseph](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/saint-joseph) | 19.3 | 59.5% |
| 21 | [Menomonee River Hills East](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/menomonee-river-hills-east) | 19.0 | 48.2% |
| 22 | [Grasslyn Manor](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/grasslyn-manor) | 18.7 | 36.1% |
| 23 | [Historic Third Ward](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/historic-third-ward) | 18.6 | 59.0% |
| 24 | [Sherman Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/sherman-park) | 18.6 | 67.5% |
| 25 | [North Granville](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/north-granville) | 18.5 | 86.8% |
| 26 | [Roosevelt Grove](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/roosevelt-grove) | 18.4 | 59.7% |
| 27 | [Yankee Hill](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/yankee-hill) | 18.4 | 87.6% |
| 28 | [Uptown](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/uptown) | 18.4 | 52.5% |
| 29 | [Timmerman West](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/timmerman-west) | 18.4 | 68.6% |
| 30 | [Menomonee River Hills](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/menomonee-river-hills) | 18.3 | 42.7% |
| 31 | [Lincoln Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lincoln-park) | 18.2 | 62.6% |
| 32 | [Layton Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/layton-park) | 18.2 | 43.8% |
| 33 | [Amani](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/amani) | 18.1 | 76.0% |
| 34 | [Morgandale](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/morgandale) | 17.9 | 34.1% |
| 35 | [Honey Creek Manor](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/honey-creek-manor) | 17.8 | 29.2% |
| 36 | [River Bend](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/river-bend) | 17.7 | 23.2% |
| 37 | [Golden Valley](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/golden-valley) | 17.6 | 21.5% |
| 38 | [Fairview](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/fairview) | 17.5 | 17.6% |
| 39 | [Williamsburg](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/williamsburg) | 17.5 | 75.7% |
| 40 | [North Division](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/north-division) | 17.4 | 66.2% |
| 41 | [Morgan Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/morgan-heights) | 17.3 | 30.6% |
| 42 | [Juneau Town](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/juneau-town) | 17.3 | 74.3% |
| 43 | [Columbus Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/columbus-park) | 17.1 | 47.3% |
| 44 | [Nash Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/nash-park) | 17.0 | 25.5% |
| 45 | [Dineen Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/dineen-park) | 16.9 | 62.5% |
| 46 | [Downer Woods](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/downer-woods) | 16.8 | 44.6% |
| 47 | [Graceland](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/graceland) | 16.7 | 42.6% |
| 48 | [Rufus King](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/rufus-king) | 16.6 | 62.3% |
| 49 | [Mitchell West](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/mitchell-west) | 16.5 | 34.4% |
| 50 | [Borchert Field](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/borchert-field) | 16.5 | 65.4% |
| 51 | [Southpoint](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/southpoint) | 16.4 | 49.2% |
| 52 | [Franklin Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/franklin-heights) | 16.4 | 62.4% |
| 53 | [Wilson Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/wilson-park) | 16.4 | 71.2% |
| 54 | [Harambee](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/harambee) | 16.3 | 66.8% |
| 55 | [Jackson Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/jackson-park) | 16.2 | 46.7% |
| 56 | [Walnut Hill](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/walnut-hill) | 16.2 | 57.2% |
| 57 | [King Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/king-park) | 16.0 | 85.3% |
| 58 | [Arlington Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/arlington-heights) | 15.9 | 71.5% |
| 59 | [Polonia](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/polonia) | 15.8 | 47.3% |
| 60 | [Lincoln Creek](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lincoln-creek) | 15.8 | 58.2% |
| 61 | [Metcalfe Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/metcalfe-park) | 15.7 | 71.1% |
| 62 | [Burnham Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/burnham-park) | 15.5 | 47.1% |
| 63 | [Walker's Point](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/walkers-point) | 15.2 | 71.6% |
| 64 | [Town of Lake](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/town-of-lake) | 14.8 | 25.8% |
| 65 | [Silver City](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/silver-city) | 14.5 | 56.6% |
| 66 | [Miller Valley](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/miller-valley) | 14.5 | 66.9% |
| 67 | [Garden Homes](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/garden-homes) | 14.4 | 69.8% |
| 68 | [Historic Mitchell Street](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/historic-mitchell-street) | 14.2 | 76.8% |
| 69 | [Cannon Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/cannon-park) | 14.1 | 57.4% |
| 70 | [Lower East Side](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lower-east-side) | 13.8 | 79.8% |
| 71 | [Clarke Square](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/clarke-square) | 13.6 | 72.7% |
| 72 | [Menomonee River Valley](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/menomonee-river-valley) | 13.6 | 86.5% |
| 73 | [Muskego Way](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/muskego-way) | 13.4 | 75.2% |
| 74 | [St. Amelian's](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/st-amelians) | 13.3 | 39.0% |
| 75 | [Northpoint](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/northpoint) | 13.1 | 80.1% |
| 76 | [Bluemound Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/bluemound-heights) | 13.0 | 42.1% |
| 77 | [Kops Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/kops-park) | 12.9 | 20.1% |
| 78 | [Tippecanoe](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/tippecanoe) | 12.7 | 32.2% |
| 79 | [Cooper Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/cooper-park) | 12.7 | 29.9% |
| 80 | [Washington Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/washington-heights) | 12.6 | 40.0% |
| 81 | [Lincoln Village](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lincoln-village) | 12.6 | 63.2% |
| 82 | [Forest Home Hills](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/forest-home-hills) | 12.4 | 64.4% |
| 83 | [Riverwest](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/riverwest) | 12.1 | 61.6% |
| 84 | [Murray Hill](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/murray-hill) | 12.1 | 79.7% |
| 85 | [Bay View](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/bay-view) | 11.1 | 45.9% |
| 86 | [Concordia](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/concordia) | 11.0 | 83.2% |
| 87 | [Story Hill](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/story-hill) | 10.1 | 52.5% |
| 88 | [Fernwood](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/fernwood) | 10.0 | 28.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Alcott Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/alcott-park) | 17.5 | 37.3% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Alverno](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/alverno) | 16.1 | 62.2% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Bradley Estates](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/bradley-estates) | 19.4 | 26.4% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Brewer's Hill](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/brewers-hill) | 12.3 | 63.3% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Brown Deer Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/brown-deer-park) | 18.5 | 57.2% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Calumet Farms](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/calumet-farms) | 17.6 | 58.7% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Cambridge Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/cambridge-heights) | 15.2 | 72.8% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Castle Manor](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/castle-manor) | 17.3 | 56.8% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Clayton Crest](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/clayton-crest) | 14.5 | 19.5% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Clock Tower Acres](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/clock-tower-acres) | 12.5 | 63.9% |
| One ward, not ranked | [College Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/college-heights) | 17.7 | 0.0% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Copernicus Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/copernicus-park) | 11.7 | 15.7% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Enderis Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/enderis-park) | 9.9 | 35.9% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Estabrook Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/estabrook-park) | 17.4 | 91.2% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Euclid Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/euclid-park) | 17.7 | 47.5% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Golden Gate](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/golden-gate) | 18.4 | 0.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Goldman Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/goldman-park) | 18.7 | 14.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Gra-Ram](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/gra-ram) | 21.8 | 40.9% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Granville Station](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/granville-station) | 16.4 | 35.4% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Halyard Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/halyard-park) | 18.3 | 78.5% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Harbor View](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/harbor-view) | 14.2 | 70.8% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Havenwoods](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/havenwoods) | 20.4 | 48.4% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Hawley Farms](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/hawley-farms) | 18.8 | 27.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Haymarket](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/haymarket) | 21.4 | 94.8% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Highwood Estates](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/highwood-estates) | 16.5 | 57.3% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Lenox Heights](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lenox-heights) | 17.1 | 57.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Lyons Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/lyons-park) | 15.1 | 25.5% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Maitland Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/maitland-park) | 19.0 | 37.0% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Marquette](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/marquette) | 16.8 | 99.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Merrill Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/merrill-park) | 17.5 | 72.6% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Mount Mary](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/mount-mary) | 17.2 | 22.9% |
| One ward, not ranked | [National Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/national-park) | 13.3 | 65.3% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Northridge](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/northridge) | 18.6 | 84.9% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Northridge Lakes](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/northridge-lakes) | 15.2 | 79.3% |
| Too few homes, not ranked | [Park Knoll](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/park-knoll) | 16.8 | 12.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Pheasant Run](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/pheasant-run) | 19.9 | 20.6% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Riverside Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/riverside-park) | 30.7 | 87.7% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Rolling Green](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/rolling-green) | 18.6 | 49.8% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Root Creek](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/root-creek) | 17.2 | 45.3% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Saveland Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/saveland-park) | 13.6 | 21.7% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Southgate](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/southgate) | 23.7 | 54.7% |
| One ward, not ranked | [The Valley/Pigsville](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/the-valley-pigsville) | 12.8 | 60.5% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Triangle North](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/triangle-north) | 19.5 | 73.5% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Upper East Side](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/upper-east-side) | 18.2 | 58.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Vogel Park](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/vogel-park) | 14.6 | 75.7% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Wedgewood](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/wedgewood) | 15.9 | 22.0% |
| One ward, not ranked | [White Manor](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/white-manor) | 17.8 | 34.1% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Wick Field](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/wick-field) | 12.3 | 49.0% |
| One ward, not ranked | [Woodlands](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/woodlands) | 25.3 | 81.2% |

To be counted, a neighborhood has to meet the floor on both measures. Neighborhoods under that are in the table with their numbers and the reason, and aren't in the correlation.

## Suburbs

| Order | Neighborhood | Midterm drop-off, president 2024 minus governor 2022, in points | Share of occupied homes rented |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | [Oak Creek](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/oak-creek) | 19.8 | 42.5% |
| 2 | [Franklin](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/franklin) | 17.4 | 22.7% |
| 3 | [South Milwaukee](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/south-milwaukee) | 17.0 | 33.2% |
| 4 | [West Allis](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/west-allis) | 16.8 | 44.5% |
| 5 | [Greenfield](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/greenfield) | 16.5 | 45.3% |
| 6 | [Hales Corners](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/hales-corners) | 16.4 | 39.3% |
| 7 | [West Milwaukee](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/west-milwaukee) | 15.8 | 66.2% |
| 8 | [Brown Deer](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/brown-deer) | 15.7 | 34.8% |
| 9 | [Bayside](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/bayside) | 15.6 | 15.5% |
| 10 | [Cudahy](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/cudahy) | 15.5 | 38.6% |
| 11 | [Greendale](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/greendale) | 14.8 | 32.8% |
| 12 | [Wauwatosa](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/wauwatosa) | 14.4 | 39.2% |
| 13 | [St. Francis](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/st-francis) | 14.3 | 45.4% |
| 14 | [Glendale](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/glendale) | 13.6 | 30.5% |
| 15 | [Shorewood](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/shorewood) | 12.5 | 54.4% |
| 16 | [Whitefish Bay](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/whitefish-bay) | 11.4 | 16.9% |
| 17 | [Fox Point](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/fox-point) | 10.1 | 22.8% |
| 18 | [River Hills](https://littlemilwaukee.com/neighborhoods/river-hills) | 9.8 | 8.5% |

## How it was measured

We plot each City neighborhood on both measures and compute the Pearson correlation across the 88 that meet the floors. Sources: Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau election data by ward; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year estimates, tables B01001, B19001, B25003, C16002 and B08301 by block group.

## What would change the answer

This shows a pattern across neighborhoods. It doesn't show that one thing causes the other, and it says nothing about any one person. A correlation near 0 means no straight-line pattern, and one or two unusual neighborhoods can move it.